The monsoon is likely to hit Kerala on June 4, three days behind schedule. It will hit Telangana state four to six days late, according to Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency.
Skymet said the onset date for Andhra Pradesh was not clear because of its proximity to the Bay of Bengal where many weather systems could change frequently. The agency said there would not be heavy rains during the onset unlike every year, which is an usual phenomenon. Scanty rains would prevail in the first half of June and pick up later. Heavy rain is expected in July everywhere, including in Telangana state.
The Indian Meteorological Department is expected to release its forecast on Thursday. Last month, the IMD had predicted a “near normal” monsoon.
Skymet CEO Jatin Singh said the monsoon would arrive over the Andamans on May 22, with an error margin of plus or minus 2 days. The initial advancement of the monsoon over peninsular India is going to be slow.
According to Skymet, there are 55 per cent chances of a below normal rainfall, which could experience the effect of El Nino, a phenomenon linked to the heating of the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean.
It said the monsoon would be “below normal” in the country with a Long Period Average (LPA) of 93 per cent and an error margin of five per cent.
Central India is likely to receive 91 per cent rainfall of the long period average (LPA, the average of the last 50 years). Rainfall in Vidarbha, Marathwada, west Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat will be ‘poorer’ than normal. Therefore, the regions of Telangana state which are adjacent to Marathwada and Vidarbha, like Nizamabad would receive slightly below normal rainfall.